My latest analysis of retail sales trends underlines the significance of Black Friday. The headline is that while November is becoming a more important month in the retail calendar, December is becoming a little less so. Swapping discounted sales in November for full margin sales in December doesn’t sound like very good business, and it isn’t.
I am forecasting that yoy, there will be an additional £2.5bn of consumer spend generated over the combined months of November and December. The rather less good news is that 60% of this growth will be sucked forward into November, virtually all at discounted prices. And of course, this is THE key trading period for the profitability of many retailers. While Christmas spend will be up 2.5% in December, that figure will be materially held back due to the cannabalisation of Black Friday.
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