Retail has always been a highly dynamic industry, intensely competitive and fighting for a share of the wider consumer spending pot. This is an industry used to dealing with a constant diet of change. However, the change we are seeing today is far more profound than anything the past has thrown up. We are now seeing by far the most challenging period in retail history. A reshaping of the industry’s structure and economics is unfolding, and most of the real change is yet to happen.

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Monthly Archives: January 2019

Next in line

In world of uncertainty, consistency is a haven. And a reliable feature of the retail calendar is Next’s Christmas Trading Statement being greeted as if it represents the industry as a whole. It doesn’t.

This morning’s numbers were solid and respectable. They will look much better as the next few weeks unfold, with the rest of the trading statements demonstrating yet again that Next is atypical. More than half its sales are now online. It only goes on sale seasonally, to clear stock and has avoided the massive damage caused by frequent discounting across the market. The company is better managed than its peers, with tight, consistent leadership. While it might be thought unexciting and a little bland, Next is risk averse and reliable. Over the years, these characteristics have helped to set the company apart.

Overall, the numbers show a continuation of its recent trend where the physical/online split is moving very steadily in favour of the latter. Next’s statement covers the 9 weeks to end December. Online sales were +15.2% and stores down 9.2%. The annualised numbers show this trend accelerated over the period. The company has also lowered its profit guidance for next year, albeit by a modest 0.6%.

Next remains a strong business and these figures reflect this. It has retained brand and price integrity where many of its peers have allowed theirs’ to dilute. This will certainly have helped it trade better than most through this period. The shake out I expect to see unfolding will make room for the better players. Next can more than hold its own and will be a beneficiary.

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